Don’t Ask AI to Predict. Ask It to Notice.
Prediction is seductive because the output looks valuable: buy, sell, up, down. But AI can be useful much earlier in the chain. Give it two financial filings and ask what materially changed: margins, debt, inventory, wording, risks, guidance. Detecting change is easier to verify than predicting the future.
Practical takeaway: Build AI tools around change detection before prediction.
Search Queries Are Free Product Interviews
A keyword like “Shopify inventory sync” contains more product information than it appears to. Someone has a platform, a problem and enough motivation to search for a solution. Aggregate hundreds of these queries and you get a crude but useful map of unmet workflows without scheduling a single discovery call.
Practical takeaway: Before brainstorming features, export 100 problem-oriented search queries around the market and cluster them by workflow.
Tiny Leads Beat Imaginary TAM
A landing page that produces two genuine inquiries has already taught you something a spreadsheet claiming a “$4.7B market” cannot: somebody encountered the problem, searched for a solution, understood your offer and cared enough to contact you. That’s a very small number, but a remarkably dense signal.
Practical takeaway: Track qualified conversations per 100 visitors alongside traffic and market-size estimates.
The Conversation Tax
Some businesses look profitable until you count the conversations. Ten clients paying $1,000 can be worse than 500 customers paying $20 if every $1,000 requires calls, estimates, clarification, revisions, and support. Communication is a real operating cost, even when it never appears in accounting.
Practical takeaway: Add human interactions per $1,000 revenue to the metrics you use when evaluating a business idea.
Every Audit Is a Product Waiting to Happen
Businesses often treat audits as a sales step. That’s a mistake. If clients repeatedly ask for evaluation before action, the evaluation itself has market value. Audits reveal hidden demand before implementation begins.
Takeaway
Track what people ask you to review, not just what they ask you to build.